While having a quick look of the
historic relationship between UK and EU it can be noticed that was more a
marriage of convenience rather than true love.
During ‘50s Britain opposed to the membership of Steel and Coal
community. In 1955 when the first steps of entering the common market were made
Britain stepped away and recently after EU was formed Prime Minister Macmillan
observed Union with extreme scepticism. Shortly after the country formally
joined the rest of Europe in 1973 Margaret Thatcher asked for her “money back”.
But as Boethius stated “history
is a wheel” therefore it repeats itself.
Right now it seems that Britain
is positioned at the bottom of the wheel or is heading to it which reminds, in
certain cases, the previously mentioned historic examples.
At the moment negotiations are
not progressing the way government hoped for which creates even further
uncertainty in the market as Britain is having 18 months to agree on citizens
rights and financial obligations to EU before the formal separation and trading
deals can be discussed.
If the UK ends with no deal,
as the worst case scenario, long-term financial forecasting showed a 7% to 10% loss of GDP until 2030. Under this circumstance sterling will
suffer heavy losses making imported goods and services more expensive,
unemployment will rise and people will have less disposable income to spend
that generates value for the economy.
That will result to the
dissatisfaction of society with the government, who has been labelled as
“Leavers”, and claim that they have been deceived. This creates a chance for
the current young generation to participate at the political scheme and
reassure that decisions capable of shaping the country for the next decades
won’t be made without listening to the opinions and uncertainties of young
people.
Hopefully this scenario will
never happen but regardless some of the young people will become politicians
and the statement of Guy Verhofstadt that Britain will return to EU might come
true.
UK return to EU
